Legislative Elections 2012: The First Tour Live Blog

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The Polling Booths Prepare For a Modest Turnout. Photo by Caroline Brabant

UPDATED – Live Blog is in full effect. Follow our updates below as the results are released.

LIVE BLOG

7:25pm: The first projections obtained by exit pollsters give the right (UMP and allies) between 34 and 35%, Parti Socialiste and its allies between 31 and 32%, Front National (far right) around 14%, Front de Gauche (far left), between 7 and 8%, Les Verts (The Green Party) around 5% and Modem (moderate) below 3%.

7:56pm: 25 of President Hollande’s ministers are running in the legislative elections, with their cabinet positions on the line. Four are threatened in their circumscriptions:  Aurélie Fillipetti (Minister of Culture), Stéphane Le Foll (Minister of Agriculture), Marie-Arlette Carlotti (Minister of Disabled Affairs) and Sylvia Pinel (Minister of Commerce and Tourism).

8:03pm: First official projections place the Left (Parti Socialiste and its allies) in the lead, with the Ministry of the Interior reporting a high nation-wide abstention rate.

8:11pm:  National Assembly Seat Estimate (via IPSOS, LOGICA, FRANCE TELEVISION, RADIOFRANCE, LE MONDE)

Gauche: 47.10 %  Seats:  305-353

Droite: 35.40 %  Seats: 227-266

PS: Seats: 283 – 319 (majority)

UMP:  227 – 266

FN:  0-2

FDG: 14-20

Les Verts: 8-14

Modem: 0 -3

8:12pm:  Jean-Francois Copé: There is “no alliance with Front National”.

The Secretary General of the UMP rejects the idea of an alliance with the party of Marine Le Pen.

8:15pm: Laurent Fabius elected in the first round

The Minister of Foreign Affairs has received a large enough majority to be elected in the 1st Tour.

8:20pm: Francois Bayrou threatened in the second district of the Pyrenees-Atlantiques, says Pierre-Jaxel Truer, Special Envoy of the World. With 80% of the vote counted, the candidate of PS receives 35.6%, François Bayrou 24.14%, and 20.37% for Eric Saubatte, the UMP candidate. Eric Saubatte for now has collected 12.9% of the votes of registered, it is not yet known if there will be a “triangle” in the second tour.

8:22 pm: Results from Hénin-Beaumont (city only)

Marine Le Pen: 48.21%

Jean Luc Mélenchon: 21.21%

Philippe Kemel (PS): 16.69%

8:25pm: In the fourth district of Doubs, Minister Pierre Moscovici is well ahead. He is projected to collect 40.81% of the vote, against 23.21% for Charles Demouge (UMP) and 23.87% for Sophie Montel (FN).

8:30pm: Francois Fillon on TF1: “Jean-Francois Copé was right to say that we will maintain our candidates everywhere. If there are duels that we are not prepared for, tomorrow [in political office] we will precisely consider each case.”

8:32pm: 

8:33pm:  Louis Aliot, Second in Command of the FN: “We are democrats! We do not need lessons from either the UMP or the PS.” 

8:35pm: Marielle de Sarnez (MODEM): “It is not easy to change a political life marked by bipolarity.”

8:40pm: Estimates: Aurélie Fillipetti (PS) 45% in head to head duel with UMP (27%).

8:42pm: Frédéric Cuvillie, Minister of Transport, elected to the 5th district of Pas-de-Calais in the 1st Tour.

8:44pm: Sylvia Pinel, Minister of Crafts, Trade and Tourism, leads in the 2nd district of Tarn-et-Garonne with 42% of the vote.

8:45pm: Stéphane Le Foll, Minister of Agriculture leads with 46% in the district of La Sarthe (the district of Former Prime Minister François Fillon).

8:48pm: François Fillon: “There has not been a ‘pink wave’.”

8:50pm: Alain Juppé: “A high rate of abstention and strong capacity to mobilize voters [by UMP] has placed UMP on par with PS not including the seats of their allies.”

8:52pm:

Projections by Political Alignment:

Parliamentary Left: 305 to 353

– PS / KVD: 270-300

– FG: 14-20

– GWP: 10 to 14

– EELV: 8 to 14

– MRC: 3-5

Parliamentary Right: 227-266

– UMP / DVD: 210-240

– N / AC: 13-19

– PRV: 4-7

Center/Non-Coalition

MoDem: 0-3

Front National: 0-2

8:55pm: BREAKING: Jean Luc Mélénchon has not qualified for the 2nd Tour in Hénin-Beaumont.

8:58pm: IPSOS Institute estimates there will be 25-30 ‘triangle’ districts in the 2nd Tour, mainly involving candidates from FN. There was only 1 in 2007.

9:00pm: Ségolène Royal: “The French wanted to give a majority change and I call on them to amplify this movement for the second round.” “I will be candidate at the head of the National Assembly”

9:02pm: In La Rochelle, the situation is uncertain for  Ségolène Royal who has 32% ahead of the dissident PS candidate Falorni (28.9%) and the UMP candidate Chadjaa (19.4%). We do not yet know who will continue in the second round.

9:05pm: Delphine Batho (PS) has been elected to her district in the 1st Tour.

9:07pm: In the 3rd district of Vaucluse, Marion Marshal Le Pen, the niece of Marine Le Pen, came first with 34.65% of the vote before the former UMP candidate Jean-Michel Ferrand (30.03%) and the PS candidate Catherine Arkilovitch (21.98%).

9:10pm: Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault would be elected in the first round, according to his team. He is a candidate for Nantes.

9:12pm: Xavier Bertrand (leading in his district): “We lead, several points ahead of the Socialist candidate. We [UMP] will have candidates in the second round. The French did not want to sign a blank check to Francois Hollande and Parti Socialiste.”

9:15pm: In Landes, Henri Emmanuelli (PS) was unsurprisingly reelected in the first round with 56.07% of the vote. Emmanuelli was the former President of PS for the National Assembly from 1997 to 2002.

9:18pm: PM Ayrault“Since May 6, the government began to realize the commitments made by President of the Republic (..) We want to redress the justice system in France, control our public accounts, give priority to the youth (…) and engage in energy transition. To carry out these projects, we need a majority next Sunday. I call on the French to rally on Sunday to give the president a broad majority.”

9:20pm: Marine Le Pen: “The failure of Jean-Luc Mélenchon demonstrates the disconnect between the candidate and the electorate who did not adhere to his brutal and bobo campaign. We lead the field against the ‘unreconstructed’ left.”

9:23pm: François Fillon: “We made this campaign on our values. We will maintain our candidates wherever feasible.”

9:26pm: Francois Bayrou has been forced into a triangle. The President of MODEM comes second in the 2nd District of the Pyrenees-Atlantiques (23%), behind the PS candidate Nathalie Chabanne (23.6%) and ahead of Eric Saubatte UMP (21.7%).

9:31pm: In Biarritz (Pyrénées-Atlantiques), the former foreign minister Michele Alliot-Marie (UMP) leads with 35.37% of the vote to the PS candidate Sylviane Allaux (31.55%).

9:33pm: Chantal Jouanno (UMP):“It is democracy that is at stake today: no question of passing any agreement with the FN at the local or national level.”

9:37pm:

More precise estimates of 1st Tour results

9:39pm: Collated estimates for President Hollande’s cabinet ministers:

  • Alain Vidal, Minister for Parliamentary Relations, in a tie with 45.57% of the vote.
  • Bernard Cazeneuve, Minister Delegate for European Affairs, re-elected with 55.39% of the vote.
  • Frédéric Cuvillier, Minister for Transport, re-elected with 50.66% of the votes.
  • Delphine Batho, Minister Delegate to the Minister of Justice, re-elected with 53.18% of the votes cast.
  • Michel Sapin, Minister of Labour (alternate), in favor over candidate Jean-Paul Chanteguet with 46.95%.
  • Marlylise Lebranchu, Minister of State Reform: favorable ballot, with 48.21% of the vote.
  • Jerome Cahuzac, Minister for the Budget, in a tie with 46.86% favorable vote.
  • Stéphane Le Foll (PS), Minister of Agriculture, in a tie with 46.01% favorable vote.
  • Sylvia Pinel, Minister of Craft, Trade and Tourism: favorable ballot: 42.05% of the votes cast.
  • Victorian Lurel, Minister of Foreign Affairs, re-elected with 67.23% of the votes cast.

9:44pm: In the 1st district of Haute-Savoie, the PS candidate Christian Jeantet has prevented the UMP candidate and former President of the National Assembly, Bernard Accoyer (43.45%), of being elected in the first round as he was in 2007. With 12.56% of the votes cast, André Adobati (FN) has also ensured himself a place in the second round.

9:46pm: Arnaud Montebourg, Minister of Economic Relief: “We are in the midst of changing the strategy of the European economic plan(…) We ask the French people to support us to impose growth.”

9:49pm: François Bayrou“We see how difficult it is, the demand to open new paths to choose  reconciliation over partisanship. (…) The second round will be a tough battle but we will rise to it, without letting go.”

9:51pm: Philippe Poutou, (New Anti-Capitalist Party) former candidate for president, does not qualify for the second round in the fifth district of the Gironde.

9:53pm: 23 candidates for Europe Écologie Les Verts (EELV, The Greens) have qualified for the second tour, according to current estimates.

9:55pm: In La Rochelle (Charente-Maritime), Ségolène Royal is in danger. Leading (32.03%), she will face the dissident socialist candidate Olivier Falorni (28.91%). The UMP has been eliminated.

9:57pm: The Secretary General of UMP, Jean-Francois Copé, came close to re-election in the first round. The mayor of Meaux received 49.15% of votes in the 6th district of Seine-et-Marne.

10:00pm: William Peltier, adviser to Nicolas Sarkozy during his campaign, has qualified for the second round in the 1st district of Indre-et-Loire in Tours with 28.65% of the vote. He will face Jean-Patrick Gille (PS) who has 41.69% of the vote.

10:02pm: FranceInter’s Result Map:

Courtesy of FranceInter

10:09pm: Cécile Duflot: “The Greens will be above 5%, this is a good score for the legislative elections. I hope that the mobilization will be strong in the second round so we can have a group in the Assembly.”

10:10pm: The last estimates of IPSOS:

  • Extrême Gauche : 1%
  • Front de Gauche : 6.8%
  • PS/Parti Radical de Gauche/MRC/DVG : 34.4%
  • EELV : 5,7%
  • Modem : 1.7%
  • UMP/Nouveau Centre/Parti Radical Valoisien/Alliance Centriste/DVD : 34.6%
  • Front National : 13.7%
  • Divers Extrême Droite :0.2%
  • Autres (Divers/Divers écologistes/Régionalistes) : 1.9%

10:12pm: Results for Paris and the Ile-de-France region will be available from 11pm GMT+1/5pm EST. Writers Simon Buisson and Nathan Ratapu are signing off for the next hour before coverage will continue with Marc Goëtzmann and Melanie Bavaria. Stay tuned for in depth analysis and coverage of the elections all this week.

June 11, 2012

12:10am: In the 2nd circonscription of Paris, François Fillon of the UMP wins 48.60% of the vote. Axel Kahn of the PS won 33.90%.

12:17am: PS wins 5th, 16th, and 12th circonscription of Paris according to AFP. Duflot (EELV) wins the 6th circonscription of Paris with 48.74%. Bohbot (UMP) wins 18.30%.

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